I see a few problems with VMware's approach.

As I understand it, Nicira started with Open vSwitch on Xen, centrally provisioned and managed using OpenFlow to support at-scale deployments in service providers. From there it expanded to include OpenFlow SDN control of white-box switches.

But after being acquired by VMware, Nicira (now NSX) has been focused more on Network Functions Virtualization (NFV), providing load-balancing, security, etc., with little emphasis on controlling physical switches via OpenFlow. Improved virtual networking and NFV were needed in VMware, but does VMware want to also be a software-only OpenFlow product company, testing its SDN controller on dozens of switches?

Either way, managing vSwitches on hypervisors, or managing physical switches on networks, VMware seems like it is trying to solve yesterday's problems.

I believe VMware is falling into the same trap as Microsoft. Microsoft viewed everything from the point of the physical computer: the PC and the server. Microsoft was blind to the rise of the hypervisor.

Today, VMware views everything from the point of the hypervisor. Sure, it may say the hypervisor is being commoditized, and as a result it is moving upstack and targeting the adjacent markets of cloud management platforms (CMP), NFV, and other areas. But it is still tied to the hypervisor. It is blind to the rise of containers, and the increasing enterprise interest in OpenStack.

Sure, VMware claims containers work great--inside of VMs on VMware's hypervisor. And sure, VMware says OpenStack represents "No fork in the road" on the path to the VMware SDDC. But if a customer uses OpenStack, vRealize is not a factor. And if OpenStack becomes the preferred CMP for Docker-centric IAAS, VMware may face a serious threat.

Containers may be the most disruptive IT technology since server virtualization. And containers are most disruptive to traditional hypervisor vendors. At the same time, containers benefit traditional OS vendors like Red Hat and Microsoft.

Virtual networking and NFV for containers is a very different problem to solve than for VMs and hypervisors. To have a solid container strategy, VMware needs an ability to provision, secure, network, and manage RHEL/LXC/Docker on bare-metal as well as it can RHEL inside a VMware VM.

The IT application environment just got a whole lot more complicated with the rise of Docker containers. It is a difficult and broad task to develop the tools to support this environment. It will consolidate in a few years, but in between, the vendors who have the broadest strategy stand to win.